I always seem to be telling stories about my mum on here
But this is a favourite. She's a bit of a sucker for the supernatural (whereas I'm a full-on scientific atheist type). When trying to decide on things to do, she used to do the I Ching. One day she had a dilemma, and decided to throw the yarrow stalks or whatever you do.

The answer she received seemed fairly meaningless, so after much deliberation, she gave up and tried it again. She was rather freaked out to get exactly the same hexagram (which is pretty unlikely in itself). Bewildered, she threw it again. This time the result was this: (seriously)

THE JUDGMENT


YOUTHFUL FOLLY has success.
It is not I who seek the young fool;
The young fool seeks me.
At the first oracle I inform him.
If he asks two or three times, it is importunity.
If he importunes, I give him no information.
Perseverance furthers.


That was the last time she consulted the I Ching
( flatfrog Staring vacantly into space, Thu 3 Jul 2008, 11:13, 11 replies)

...
Getting the same hexagram twice in a row is no less likely than getting any other combination...
( Enzyme is powered by sunlight, Thu 3 Jul 2008, 12:04, closed)

Don't be silly
It's 63 times less likely than getting 'any other combination'.
( flatfrog Staring vacantly into space, Thu 3 Jul 2008, 12:14, closed)

Which as Enzyme says...
is just as likely as any other combination.
(JohabMorelli is spenging merrily away, Thu 3 Jul 2008, 12:19, closed)

Everytime you throw it
the odds are the same for any outcome. The odds don't change with repetition.
( Madam Marlboro wonders if you've found her yet, Thu 3 Jul 2008, 12:41, closed)

Guys, I'm a mathematician
I know what you're saying, but you're missing the point. Of course it's just as likely to get one hexagram as any other. However, it is still 63 times more likely to get two different hexagrams than two the same, just as it's five times more likely to roll two different dice rolls than two the same. You're committing what I hereby name the Gambler's Reverse Fallacy
( flatfrog Staring vacantly into space, Thu 3 Jul 2008, 12:47, closed)

@flatfrog
The odds of getting two the same are the same as getting, say, 1 followed by 6.

The fact that we see getting two the same as special, and getting 1 followed by 6 as not, is completely human and subjective.

There is nothing particularly unlikely about getting two in a row the same.
(Musuko, Thu 3 Jul 2008, 22:06, closed)

What is wrong with you people?
*Yes* there is something special about getting two in a row. It *is* a qualitavely different result, with a low probability.

Jesus, I could so clean up playing dice with you guys. I tell you what, let's throw two dice and I'll bet you even odds that I don't throw a double. Or, I can throw one die and bet you even odds that the next throw is different (which is the same thing, of course)
( flatfrog Staring vacantly into space, Fri 4 Jul 2008, 9:30, closed)

I haven't a clue
what the yarrow sticks or the iching or whatever you just said is
(Freddles, Fri 4 Jul 2008, 10:14, closed)

@fred
I Ching is an ancient method of Taoist Chinese divination. I've got no idea how you do it with yarrow stalks, but it amounts to the same thing as throwing three coins six times in a row, assigning 2 to heads and 3 to tails, giving you six numbers from 6 to 9. You represent a 6 or a 7 with a broken line and an 8 or 9 with a solid line (or it might be the other way round, I can't remember). This gives you what's called a hexagram, and there are 64 possibilities. Each one also has a number of 'changes', depending on whether any line is the more common 7 or 8, or the less common 6 or 9. The responses are written in a book called the Tao Te Ching or Book of Changes, and amount to the usual vague gubbins you get in these kinds of things, which can apply pretty much equally to anyone.

That's not to say it doesn't work, of course - I reckon it works as well as any other divination method, by essentially allowing you to access subconscious knowledge or emotions, like a Rorschach test. We pick out the bits that apply to us and discard the rest.
( flatfrog Staring vacantly into space, Fri 4 Jul 2008, 10:49, closed)

Once I got Yahtzee three times in a row
And received a mathematical lecture on the odds of probability, which has I did A level maths was slightly uncalled for, but the odds are the same I think we just get amazed when things like that happen.

I'm not a sceptic on the whole paranormal thing, I have seen things I can't explain - however probability does account for a lot. I also once managed to successfully predict the outcome of a coin toss 37 times in a row whilst the odds of correctly guessing that many are small there is that chance and indeed the chance I could have correctly guessed the outcome infinitely. Which would have won me a lot more money!
( TGB checking Off Topic is still shit at, Tue 8 Jul 2008, 13:54, closed)

No, the chance of correctly guessing infinitely often is zero
But anyway - what's frustrating about this whole discussion is that getting the same thing twice in a row is not the spooky part (it was a coincidence, but nothing noteworthy). The point is the result of the third throw, which I quoted. Anyway, I can't be arsed any more.
( flatfrog Staring vacantly into space, Tue 8 Jul 2008, 17:31, closed)