Not so much make believe as "just a matter of time"
In 2029, a meteor big enough to take out a small country will enter our solar system. Scientists believe the odds on it striking the earth are 1-40. Might as well make the most of the next 24 years people...

scary link
link to fullsize animation - doh

From the An Accident Waiting to Happen challenge. See all 386 entries (closed)

( oucheh I am have confused, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:40, archived)

Tell me
If this is your attitude at 40-1, are you new to odds as well?
And good animation
(Pigmash, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:42, archived)

oops
1 in 40 - I must have been thinking of my bet in the Grand National today.. andd no, I am not a betting person... :)
( oucheh I am have confused, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:45, archived)

1 in 38.461538461538461538461538461538461538

(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:46, archived)

So what?
Just because it enters the solar system doesn't mean it'll hit earth

edit/

"Experts point out that means a 97.4 percent chance the giant boulder will miss, and they stress that the odds are likely to go down to zero, eventually, when more detailed observations of its path are made. Significant revision -- if it comes -- probably won't happen soon."
(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:43, archived)

Thank god for that
*crawls out from behind sofa*
( Slacker Steve is your taxloss lover from Liverpool, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:45, archived)

i would estimate that the proportion of time the street outside my house is occupied by a moving car is far, far less than 1/40th
but i still look both ways before i cross the road
( lemony, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:46, archived)

But you cross the road more than once, ever

(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:47, archived)

the real point withnevertheless i don't dismiss the risk just because it's low
suire they're scaremongering but the damage caused would be far greater than me gertting knocked down by a car
( lemony, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:51, archived)

also
if it did hit the planet, it'd probably hit water, so just a few tidal waves
(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:53, archived)

which as we all know
cause no death or suffering whatsoever
( lemony, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:55, archived)

better than it hitting somewhere important
say, europe
(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:56, archived)

europe?
important?
( frox, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:04, archived)

I say get hit by meteorites
It's like chicken pox or measles, best just get it out the way
(emptyspace, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:13, archived)

but they would say that
there payed to not cause a panic.
(Killslay, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:47, archived)

If we really were all going to die
then panicking wouldn't really matter, now would it?
(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:48, archived)

true
but they still dont want to cause mass panic, i imagine the last few years of looting and anarchy might get a little unpleasant
(Killslay, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:50, archived)

More unpleasant than what?
being hit by a giant meteor, perhaps?
(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:52, archived)

Rather looking foward to it
*polishes lucky crowbar*
( Slacker Steve is your taxloss lover from Liverpool, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:52, archived)

yay anarchy!
personally i'm looking forward to the mass orgys full of people who dont want to die virgins
(Killslay, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:54, archived)

you mean all the fat hairy men
and such?
(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:55, archived)

damn right!
if theres a big rock going to end humanity as we know it i dont care where i get it.
Besides, i'm fat and hairy.
(Killslay, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:58, archived)

Fat AND hairy?
...when could we meet...
( Slacker Steve is your taxloss lover from Liverpool, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:07, archived)

next time
i stalk you on your way home at night again
(Killslay, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:09, archived)

Yippee!
*looks for pot of Vasi-lube*
( Slacker Steve is your taxloss lover from Liverpool, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:12, archived)

No - hot young nuns
who've not been in the nunhood long enough to be comfortable with dying a virgin - former catholic schoolgirls, the lot of 'em.

And we all know what they're like.

From, y'know, rumours and stereotypes and such.
( friendlyfire, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 17:03, archived)

"Necessity is the mother of invention" - Plato
by raising awareness, we are more likely to find solutions to what remains a potential problem
( lemony, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:53, archived)

dispatch a crack-team of miners to blow it up

(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:55, archived)

i suggest they be led by bruce willis

( lemony, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:56, archived)

yippie-kay-ay motherfucker!

(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:57, archived)

Watched Die Hard 2 t'other day
Cracked me up at the end: "Look! The runway has been lit up with the burning wreckage of a crashed airliner! I think we'll land there..."
( Slacker Steve is your taxloss lover from Liverpool, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:10, archived)

I watched that film
I had never seen it due to the fact everybody said it was pants.

For the record: Die Hard 2 IS pants

Die Hard 1 was the original and best despite some overly far fetched bits in the ending
(emptyspace, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:16, archived)

Die Hard 1 is the most essential action movie
But it's hard to beat Die Hard: With a Vengence
( Slacker Steve is your taxloss lover from Liverpool, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:20, archived)

The third one was good
But the producer's never got as good a baddy as Alan Rickman, and
the plot for the 3rd film is a rehash of the original. Bad Guys make
terror, use as cover to steal vast sums of money etc
(emptyspace, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:27, archived)

close but no cigar.
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6751433/
(Azzek!, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:47, archived)

Don't worry
Lembit Opik will protect us. His wings are like a shield of steel.
(_Felix suspicious character from prehistoric caucasus, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:47, archived)

Lembit Opik
Best name ever
he would have my vote
(emptyspace, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:28, archived)

ooh, i was just wondering how you'd got such nice animation
into a board sized gif but it's actually rather large... the maximum size to post on the board is around 250kb, could you make a smaller one and link to the big one please?
edit: there is help about how to make your files smaller here
www.lemony.co.uk/optimisation.htm
( eclectech, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:49, archived)

Wow
it's nice to have broardband. I didn't even notice the huge filesize
(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:51, archived)

hehe
i didn't either, it was the quality of the anim, and knowing it was the sort of anim that is a bugger to gif that made me look!
( eclectech, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:54, archived)

well aren't you smart then

(Sticky Label, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:57, archived)

well, obviously yes
but this is experience driven rather than innate intelligence, i have made an awful lot of gifs
( eclectech, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:58, archived)

oops again...
ahh.. I guess the L plate is working... thanks

Posted link and having a look at reducing filesize...
( oucheh I am have confused, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:53, archived)

thanks very much
it is a very nice anim :)
( eclectech, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 15:55, archived)

ok fixed fer now...
will read that optimisation page - thanks :)

/n00b
( oucheh I am have confused, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:16, archived)

sorry,
but that's old data. 2004 mn4 has been downgraded to Torino 1, meanining "couldn't care less" (actually "no unusual level of danger").

Impact probability is now estimated at 1.5e-4 meaining that it has 99.985% of probability of missing earth.

neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
( frox, Sat 9 Apr 2005, 16:01, archived)