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Are you a QOTWer? Do you want to start a thread that isn't a direct answer to the current QOTW? Then this place, gentle poster, is your friend.
( , Sun 1 Apr 2001, 1:00)
Are you a QOTWer? Do you want to start a thread that isn't a direct answer to the current QOTW? Then this place, gentle poster, is your friend.
( , Sun 1 Apr 2001, 1:00)
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Imagine you pick box 1
That means you don't pick box 2 or 3, think about 2&3 as "not box 1"
An incorrect box say 2 is then removed.
So your choice is box 1 or box 3, but it's better to think about it as box 1 or "not box 1" which givs you the 1/3rd chance of it being box 1 and a 2/3rd chance of being "not box 1" which is box 3
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:05, 1 reply, 12 years ago)
That means you don't pick box 2 or 3, think about 2&3 as "not box 1"
An incorrect box say 2 is then removed.
So your choice is box 1 or box 3, but it's better to think about it as box 1 or "not box 1" which givs you the 1/3rd chance of it being box 1 and a 2/3rd chance of being "not box 1" which is box 3
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:05, 1 reply, 12 years ago)
i can se the logic to your solution
however it feels like clever maths rather than actual real world fact
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:11, Reply)
however it feels like clever maths rather than actual real world fact
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:11, Reply)
It's a real world fact that has been proven by repeately opening boxes.
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:12, Reply)
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:12, Reply)
no, statistically it's entirely correct
the problem is that it only works if you assume that the questionmaster didn't know there would be goats behind door 2. Once you accept that if it were a real world problem there would be knowledge on the part of the questionmaster then the odds are meaningless
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:24, Reply)
the problem is that it only works if you assume that the questionmaster didn't know there would be goats behind door 2. Once you accept that if it were a real world problem there would be knowledge on the part of the questionmaster then the odds are meaningless
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:24, Reply)
It works because at the point you chose your box you had a 2/3 chance of being wrong
when they remove one of the wrong boxes you still have the same chance of being wrong but because they have removed an incorrect box you have a 2/3 chance that the other box is right.
You see?
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:26, Reply)
when they remove one of the wrong boxes you still have the same chance of being wrong but because they have removed an incorrect box you have a 2/3 chance that the other box is right.
You see?
( , Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:26, Reply)
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